Tariffs and Your Retirement

Tariffs and Your Retirement By Briton Ryle Written Sep. 17, 2018 If you took a look at the S&P 500, it would be pretty easy to conclude that the escalating trade conflict with China is not a problem for the U.S. economy. Then, if you took a look at China's market, you might go on to think that the tariffs are really hurting the Chinese and that they should be coming to the table hat in hand. The Shanghai Composite Index has been absolutely crushed, down about 50% from 2015 highs. Investors are running from China. The U.S. is clearly winning, right?  Well, not so fast. There's more at play than just tariffs. We also have to look at retirement accounts, share buybacks, interest rates, and emerging markets to get a real look at what's going on... 401(k)s? Share buybacks? How does that fit in with all the trade and tariff talk?  Glad you asked. Because the stock market serves a different purpose in the U.S. than it does in China. Sometimes I look at the S&P 500 and it seems like one big retirement savings fund. Every two weeks, your (and my) 401(k) contributions come out of your paycheck and go right in the stock. Add in IRA investments, pension funds, and annuities, and we're talking about $28 trillion in assets — roughly half the value of the S&P 500. For the record, when you buy an annuity, you're not buying stocks, exactly. But the company that sold you the annuity sure is. How else do you think they make enough of your money to pay you out every year? Sure, not all the money goes into the market. You're still exposed. That's just one of the, like, 300 reasons I have for not liking annuities. At all. Anyway. Corporate share buybacks have been running about a trillion dollars every year. Between them and retirement investing, that's a lot of buying power consistently flowing into the market. Total stock market assets under management are around $37 trillion in the U.S. The U.S. stock market is built to go higher most of the time.  The Chinese stock market is nowhere near as intricately intertwined in the average citizen's life. Total assets under management in China just jumped a massive 22% last year — to $4.2 trillion. What Goes Up... So when we look into the rearview mirror at the financial crisis, it's pretty easy to see why there was such a deep degree of panic. Every U.S. citizen's prosperity is directly tied to the stock market. Even the people who aren't invested in stocks at all are dependent on those who are.  This sounds bad. And I do believe Americans typically don't fully grasp how dependent we are on stock prices. But I'd also argue that economic growth is geared to move steadily higher... Here's my simple formula: The population grows. Inflation lowers the spending power of the dollar. Prices and wages rise over time. More people with more money means more spending. More spending means more revenue and profits for corporations. Stock prices rise.  It's not a perfect formula, mind you. It is dependent on a growing population (immigration reform, please). And if you read between the lines, you can see why the Fed is concerned by weak inflation and terrified by deflation.  Every once in a while, this growth cycle gets a correction. Whatever the root cause, the effect is that Americans suddenly have to spend less money, which sets off the vicious cycle of falling corporate revenue, layoffs, and less spending. These events are pretty much always a surprise. In the 1970s, it was oil embargos. In the 1980s, it was crazy high interest rates. In the 1990s, we saw the first true global contagion during the Asian Currency Crisis. In the early 2000s, I'd argue that the 9/11 attacks were a bigger cause of that recession than the tech bubble collapsing. Then we had the financial crisis... What's next? Dunno. And there's no way to know for sure, either... The biggest thing I worry about is the long-term implications of automation. For instance, McDonald's is starting to replace cashiers with kiosks. Something like 30% of Amazon employees qualify for some kind of government assistance... Weren't We Talking About Trade and China? Why, yes. Yes, we were talking about China... President Trump says he is on the verge of laying down tariffs on another $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. He likes to say this is bringing billions in investment to the U.S. And for argument's sake, let's just ignore subtleties and say this is true. U.S. GDP is $18 trillion. With a "T." The U.S. trade deficit with China — around $150 billion — is literally a drop in the bucket. Even if every penny of the trade we do with China was generated in the U.S., the effect would be incremental. Ford wouldn't be somehow suddenly hiring a million people and hiking their wages 30%.  Companies hire workers when there is consumer demand for a product or service. Ford will be more apt to hire workers if it can keep selling American-made Mustangs in China. Sales were up 35% last year. Tariffs aren't going to help that. And in fact, if Mustang sales fall in China, guess who pays the price?  Real growth comes from investment. That's true for the U.S. economy, and it's true for you. There's not much any individual can do to encourage the government to invest in growth. But for you, it should be an easy decision. Focus on the long-term trend for the U.S. economy and U.S. companies.  And also focus your investments on the real growth trends. Cloud computing is a big one. The hosts, like Microsoft and Amazon. The data centers. Look at the companies that are able to really leverage the time we spend on our stupid phones. Like Grubhub. Spotify. Or Starbucks. Even Twitter (which I think is way more mobile friendly than Facebook). I started seeing 5G commercials on TV yesterday. That's likely to be a good one, too.  Markets may stay a little weak as all this tariff stuff gets worked out. Long term, though, the U.S. stock market is the place to be.

“Leaking Like Mad”: FBI-DOJ-MSM Collusion Went Far Deeper Than Previously Known

via www.zerohedge.com

The FBI’s coordination with the mainstream media surrounding the 2016 US election – a “media leak strategy” which was first first revealed Tuesday, goes far deeper than first reported, according to Fox News, which obtained “new communications between the former lovers.”

A December 15, 2016 email appears to discuss a “political” leaking operation, in which others were “leaking like mad” amid the Trump-Russia probe.

“Oh, remind me to tell you tomorrow about the times doing a story about the rnc hacks,” Page texted Strzok.

“And more than they already did? I told you Quinn told me they pulling out all the stops on some story…” Strzok replied.

A source told Fox News “Quinn” could be referring to Richard Quinn, who served as the chief of the Media and Investigative Publicity Section in the Office of Public Affairs. Quinn could not be reached for comment.

Strzok again replied: “Think our sisters have begun leaking like mad. Scorned and worried, and political, they’re kicking into overdrive.”

In one passage, Strzok apparently misreads a reference to “rnc” as “mc,” and then, realizing his error, blames “old man eyes.”

It is unclear at this point to whom Strzok was referring when he used the term “sisters.” –Fox News

“Sisters” may refer to sister agency.

“Sisters is an odd phrase to use,” retired FBI special agent and former FBI national spokesman John Iannarelli told Fox News Wednesday. “It could be any intelligence agency or any other federal law enforcement agency. The FBI works with all of them because, post 9/11, it’s all about cooperation and sharing.”

The US intelligence community is comprised of 17 agencies, including the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the FBI and the National Security Agency.

Fox News notes that the “leaking like mad” reference was texted the same day that several US news outlets reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin was personally involved – and personally approved, Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.

Several days before that, an article titled “Russian Hackers Acted to Aid Trump in Election, U.S. Says,” was published in the New York Times, which cited “senior administration officials.”

Then, on January 10, 2017, The Times published another article which suggested that Russian hackers had “gained limited access” to the Republican National Committee (RNC) – the same day that BuzzFeed News published the “Steele Dossier” accusing President Trump of a variety of salacious and unproven ties to Russia.

Following the text about “sisters leaking,” Strzok wrote to Page:

“And we need to talk more about putting C reporting in our submission. They’re going to declassify all of it…”

Page replied: “I know. But they’re going to declassify their stuff, how do we withhold…”

“We will get extraordinary questions. What we did what we’re doing. Just want to ensure everyone is good with it and has thought thru all implications,” Strzok wrote. “CD should bring it up with the DD.”

A source told Fox News that “C” is likely in reference to classified information, whereas “CD” is Cyber Division, and DD could refer to former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.

McCabe was fired by Attorney General Jeff Sessions in March for making an unauthorized disclosure to the news media, and “lacked candor” under oath on multiple occassions.

It is unclear what “submission” Strzok and Page were referring to. –Fox News

A source also told Fox News that the messages were part of the newly released batch of Strzok-Page communications obtained by DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz, who uncovered them as part of his investigation into the FBI’s conduct in the Russia investigation.

via www.zerohedge.com

Fighting Cowardly Institutional Tyranny

Originally published at Fox News Newt Gingrich

The anonymous op-ed published by The New York TimesWednesday is the most stunning proof we have seen so far of the liberal media’s aggressive bias and the very real efforts by parts of the institutional establishment to undermine the President, the U.S. Constitution, and the will of the American people.

In its fervor to attack the White House – and influence the midterm elections – The New York Times happily eschewed basic journalistic standards and offered its page and waning credibility to a nameless, disgruntled, elitist coward who seems to believe he or she has the moral authority to ignore and undermine the elected leader of the free world.

The paper’s editorial board clearly said it granted the writer anonymity to “deliver an important perspective” to readers and to protect the writer from losing his or her job. This is a naked endorsement of the subversive efforts described in the piece – The New York Timeswants the author to keep it up.

The collusion between this supposed senior administration official (who could be one of thousands of minor-but-experienced appointees) and the newspaper (which is the standard bearer of elite media power) is also clear evidence that members of the old guard, institutional establishment are working to protect old Washington power structures and prevent the changes that the American people elected President Trump to bring to our country.

In the op-ed, the writer even describes him- or herself as a member of “the steady state.” That’s a catchy name for group of would-be mutineers. In my New York Timesbestselling book Trump’s America: The Truth About Our Nation’s Great Comeback, I called them orderly institutionalist wing of the Anti-Trump coalition.

Don’t be fooled by their self-proclaimed patriotism, the members of this group are working on behalf of institutional processes – not the American people.

This op-ed is also a perfect depiction of the competing alternate reality the anti-Trump forces are trying to impose on the country.

If the President is so unhinged and incapable, why has North Korea said it wanted to work toward truly denuclearizing the peninsula? How is Trump and the Republican Party so close to seating a second constitutionally-focused Supreme Court Justice? How is the economy in its best shape in decades?

This coward who is hiding from the American people that pay his or her salary would have us believe the members of the so-called “steady state” are the ones achieving these goals – despite the fact that they’ve likely been in Washington for decades and were apparently incapable before President Trump took office.

This is egotistical, elitist Washington baloney.

Let’s be clear: This anonymous op-ed will do nothing to change anything about which its author complained. It will do nothing to quiet concerns that some Americans may have about the direction of the country. It will do nothing to help strengthen America on the world stage. It will only help fuel excitement for Democrats in November.

It is nothing but an extraordinary statement of arrogance from someone who didn’t run for office and won't even tell the American people his or her name.

The only honorable, lawful course of action for the author is to publicly resign.

If this supposed patriot wants to steer our country’s future, he or she should ask the American people for permission first.

The fervor for führers

By Becky Akers

The fervor for führers 

One sticky evening in August 1923, "[t]ens of thousands gathered overnight along the ... railroad tracks" in Akron, Ohio, "to stake out a good vantage point. The train [they awaited] was hours late, but the hushed crowd didn't complain. No matter how long it took, they wanted to be there to pay their final respects. President Warren G. Harding, 57, an Ohio native, ... had suffered a fatal heart attack Aug. 2, 1923, in San Francisco.... The Republican president's body was being returned east to Washington, D.C., aboard an 11-car funeral train that had been shrouded in black crepe and purple ribbons. ... Millions lined the tracks across the country after [Mrs.] Florence Harding requested that the train travel slowly so as many mourners as possible could view the somber procession for the 29th president."

Modern morons so worship celebrity, political and otherwise, that we shrug at such stunts. Folks who can't be bothered to visit their elderly parents for an hour will stand in line all night to hear their favorite band or to attend a rally for a politician promising to "Make America Great Again."

We might have supposed our great-grandparents too prudent for such nonsense. Alas, "Millions... across the country" weren't. Why not? Granted, "Harding was popular during his lifetime," with the "revelations ... that sullied the reputation of his administration, including the Teapot Dome bribery scandal and allegations of marital infidelity and a child out of wedlock" yet unknown. Even so, the man was a typical politician: he sponged off the taxpayer for much of his life, first as a state senator in Ohio, then as its lieutenant governor, followed by a stint as its United States senator, and finally, as president.

Nor were his policies admirable (but then, whose are?). He imposed tariffs with all their economic tyranny and trouble, "protecting" American farmers at American eaters' expense. He "sharp[ly] reduc[ed] ... the number of immigrants allowed to enter the United States from southern and eastern Europe", though the Constitution nowhere empowers any branch of the federal government to control movement into or out of the country. He established yet another useless bureaucracy, the General Accountability Office. And "he asked for backing for the nation's highway system "insinuating the Feds into our automotive lives — as well as urging "government regulation of the radio industry." The man's only commendable action seems to have been "privately entertaining friends at the White House with ample supplies of liquor in violation of Prohibition." Too bad all Americans didn't follow suit, flouting lethal, corrupt, and bloody Prohibition into immediate abolition and saving countless lives.

Perhaps a few inebriates stood among the "millions" waiting nationwide to honor Harding, but most must have been stone, cold sober. So why did they linger?

Maybe some savored the historical moment or sought a bit of midnight madness. But I suspect the overwhelming majority had confused "patriotism" with "respecting the president." They likely would have similarly "respected" any occupant of the White House — or of Congress or the Supreme Court. (Intriguingly, I'd bet that's where our long-suffering mourners draw the line. I can't see crowds assembling for a local pol, say a mayor or alderman. Nor do they "respect" bureaucrats, either. When the infamous James Clapper of the NSA has eavesdropped on his last phone call, few if any of his victims will lose sleep over his demise.)

Why do we equate patriotism — which the dictionary defines as "devoted love, support and defense of one's country; national loyalty"with "respect" for the bloodsuckers who lord it over us in office? Shouldn't our affections belong to the country, i.e., the land with its inhabitants and private institutions that nurture our homes and families? Ergo, "country" is completely distinct from the officials ruining it. And isn't it really the quality of life in that country, the liberty it affords us to pursue prosperity, vocations, dreams, etc., that should determine whether we "love, support and defend" it? The Venezuelans fleeing their socialist hellhole are sensible, not unpatriotic. Ditto the Cubans who escaped Castro.

In other words, our dose of patriotism should match the measure of liberty a country offers. Our loyalty and love properly go to freedom, never to the politicians fighting to wrest our God-given, inalienable rights from us.

Yet legions of "patriots" mistake the object of their veneration. And no wonder: politicians — and politics in general — get things done. These powerful people can grant our wishes in an instant. Why should we work at demanding jobs, set a good example that we hope others will follow, or practice patience and virtue when a politician can simply pass a law forcing others to pay our bills or behave as we prefer?

Maybe we want top-notch medical care but not the hefty price-tag such care incurs. Bingo: bureaucrats designed Obummercare as "a substantial redistribution of resources from rich to poor (and from healthy to sick)," as one communist brags. Perhaps we despair that addicts high on opioids, heroin, or cocaine will harm our kids. Abracadabra: tyrants unconstitutionally prevent these pitiable junkies from easily acquiring such drugs and severely penalize them when they do. That's far more instantaneous and gratifying than years of our trying to persuade friends or relatives to kick their habits.

An aide to serial-rapist and president Bill Clinton summarized not only the executive orders he was actually describing but political power's allure in 1998: "Stroke of the pen. Law of the land. Kinda cool." But only sociopaths croon that compelling rather than convincing others is "kinda cool."

Still, the can-do guy has long dominated not only politics but the longings of far too many serfs (and those historians who categorize presidents). They fantasize about a "strong leader" who will "create" jobs, protect them from corporate greed, clean the environment or otherwise produce their idea of Nirvana.

But when that fantasy becomes reality, when a powerful ruler arises who "gets things done," look out. Any German who survived a "strong leader" named Adolf Hitler can testify to the consequences.

— Becky Akers 

If Republicans Want to Win, They'll Have to Stop Governing Like Democrats

If Republicans Want to Win, They'll Have to Stop Governing Like Democrats

David McIntosh
The Hill | 8/22/2018

“The liberal media keeps beating the drums that President Trump could cost Republicans their majorities in Congress.
“Not so fast. The Club for Growth PAC’s experience in running dozens of races in Republican primaries this year reveals the real problem. Republicans are in trouble because their own base is rejecting moderates who failed to uphold their promises to help President Trump roll back big government.

“We heard the same predictions in 2016 — Republicans would lose the Senate because Trump was at the top of the ticket. Instead, they kept control of the Senate and won 13 out of 18 toss-up House districts. These include the open seat in New York’s 19th Congressional District where Republican John Faso handily beat Zephyr Teachout by nine points. …

“How did they do it?

“They ran on a fiscally conservative platform that wooed many former Obama voters who were sick and tired of the waste, excess, and regulation of Obama’s reign. …

“But with the 2018 midterms less than three months away, the pundits predict that ‘Republicans will lose 40 to 50 House seats.’ Almost all of these seats are represented by moderates who have dragged their feet on implementing President Trump’s mandates. Their average on the Club for Growth Scorecard on economic issues is a mere 64 percent — basically a D+ at best.

“What changed?

“Over the past two years, so-called moderate congressional Republicans abandoned their conservative campaign promises and sided with Democrats. From repealing ObamaCare, to passing a $1.3 trillion omnibus spending bill that ensures perennial $1 trillion deficits, these Republicans forced the Republican-controlled Congress to break many of its core campaign promises.  

“John Faso, for example, ran as a frugal fiscal conservative in his open-seat race, promising to ‘fight to lower taxes to help create jobs.’ …

“After being sworn into Congress, however, John Faso the congressman didn’t look anything like John Faso the candidate. Instead of cutting taxes and simplifying the tax code, Faso voted against President Trump’s signature tax cuts (RC #699, 2017). Instead of living up to his self-proclaimed frugality, Rep. Faso couldn’t muster the frugality to support a mere one percent spending cut (RC #251, 2018). …

“New York’s 19th district is a lean-Republican seat (R+2 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index) that handed Trump a six-point victory, but Faso is voting like a Democrat on fiscal issues. In 2017, Rep. Faso earned a meager 24 percent on the Club for Growth’s scorecard — the worst Republican score in the House of Representatives.

“Republicans like Rep. Faso have a problem on their hands: The GOP is treating voters as if they’re stupid — but they are not. Voters are smart. They know what candidate Faso promised: to change Washington. And they know what he did: jump on the DC swamp bandwagon.
…
“Similarly, take a look at the special election in Ohio’s 12th congressional district, where moderate Republican Troy Balderson who supported funding Medicaid expansion barely eked out a victory over Democrat Danny O’Connor. …
“But this special general election race never should have been this close. The 12th district has an R+7 Cook Partisan Voting Index rating and was easily held by Republicans for 30-plus years. 
…
“Republican and independent voters are sending a message — they are rejecting establishment orthodoxy — that it is not OK to run as a conservative and govern as a moderate.
…
“Time and again, Republicans have failed to learn this important lesson. If Republicans want to hang onto their House majority, the single most important thing they can do is start acting like conservatives.
“It’s time for Republicans to learn this lesson before it’s too late.”

159th update

8/9/2018

Contract No. 60L72

FAP Route 351: US 6 / IL 7 (159th St)

Will-Cook Rd to Ravinia Avenue

Current stage of construction: STAGE 2

The project in currently in the second stage of construction to construct two new 12' wide westbound

lanes, and new northbound lanes on Wolf Road and 108th Avenue. Vehicles on 159th Street are currently shifted to the south side of the road in a temporary configuration in order to build the north half of the new road.

Work Completed since last report:

Continued work for Retaining Wall #3:

- West Wall:

o Continued construction of the footing. 100% complete

o Continued construction of wall panels (controlling item). 42% complete

East Wall:

o Completed driving and filling metal shell piles. 100% complete

o No work has started for the footing and the wall panels. 0% complete

   Continued work for westbound land bridge #1 construction

o Placed rebar and pour concrete for bridge deck. 35% complete

o Poured concrete for bridge deck. 21% complete

Continued work to construct new westbound 159th Street lanes

Continued work for Stage 2 westbound pcc pavement mainline 159th turn lanes between Wolf

Rd and the Metra railroad crossing

Continued work for new pavement on Wolf Road and 108th Ave

- Continued construction of northbound Wolf Rd pcc pav't lanes, north of 159th St: 70% complete

Continued work installing Stage 2 permanent sheet pile wall west of Spring Creek: 50% complete

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Upcoming Work:

Continue work for retaining wall #3 and for westbound land bridge #1

Continue work to construct stage 2 pcc pav't turn lanes and mainline gaps along westbound 159th Street

Continue work to construct remaining pcc pav't on Wolf Road and side streets

Continue work to construct new concrete curb & gutter on 159th St and Wolf Road

Begin work on concrete sidewalk on 108th Ave.

Summary:

The new eastbound lanes were opened on December 20, 2017, and construction of the second stage ofconstruction to construct the new westbound lanes has begun. The second stage of construction

temporarily shifts one westbound lane and one eastbound lane onto the new pavement on the south

side of the road which enables the two new 12' wide westbound lanes to be constructed.

There have been several delays to the project due to utility relocations and design changes due to

unforeseen field conditions.

Items that have caused delays to the Contract:

- ComEd and AT&T Utility Relocations

- Construction over unsuitable materials (embankment & multi-use path over deep peat)

- Added permanent sheet pile wall to stabilize widened embankment next to wetlands

2017 Fiscal Year Shutdown

Current Project Schedule:

Date Significance

8/15/2017 Original Contract Completion Date plus 10 working days

+ 180 Days Approved Time Extension #1 due to Utility Relocation delays

+ 270 Days Approved Time Extension #2 due to Added Sheet Pile Wall

+ 16 Days Approved Time Extension #3 due to 2017 Fiscal Year Shutdown

+ 23 Days Approved Time Extension #4 due to Stage 2 Traffic Switch Delay

12/17/2018 Current Contract Completion Date plus 10 Working Days (Does not include

2018/2019 winter shutdown)

Contract No. 60L71 8/9/2018

FAP Route 351: IL 7/159th Street

Gougar Road to Will-Cook Road

Current stage of construction: STAGE 2

Project is currently in Stage 2 constructing 2 new 12' wide westbound lanes. Traffic was switched into

this configuration on Saturday August 4th, 2018. Vehicles are currently shifted to the south on the newly

constructed pavement. Side streets are still being constructed in substages.

Current Work Status

Removing and constructing Stage 2 pavement

Installing storm sewer

- 98% complete for Stage 1

Estimated completion September 2018

Installing embankment and sub-base

97% complete for Stage 1

Estimated completion September 2018

Installing buried slabs

- 100% complete for Stage 1

Paving 159th Street and side streets

- 95% complete for Stage 1

Estimated completion September 2018.

Current Project Schedule

- Current contractual completion date is January 8, 2018. This incorporates TER #3 and does

not include winter shutdown for 2018/2019.

Homer Glen Watermain Project

Homer Glen estimates an 8-week project duration, not including adjustments. Homer Glen has set 8-27-2018 as a target for the start of their watermain project

Illinois Republicans want to take back state road money that's been dedicated in the budget for Obama’s presidential center

Republicans want state road funds for Obama center back

·         By Cole Lauterbach | Illinois News Network

Top of Form

Bottom of Form

Steve Balich Editors Note:  The broke State of Illinois should pay nothing for the Obama Library or Center. For that matter Illinois should pay nothing for any Politician. Use the money to pay off Illinois Debt or something Illinois actually needs. Seems like a simple needs vs. wants answer. If you can't pay your bills you stop all the wants and try to pay for your needs.

Another Reason to Vote Republican and stop tax and spend Democrats

Illinois Republicans want to take back state road money that's been dedicated in the budget for former President Barack Obama’s presidential center in Chicago.

State Rep. David McSweeney has filed legislation that would revoke the $180 million in state tax dollars directed to prepare the roads for Obama’s presidential building. The money was part of the larger budget passed in June that spends more than the state ever has, but still shorted items like grants for veterans.

Construction of the project was intended to be funded by private donations.

In a release announcing the funding, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel said it “demonstrates Illinois’ commitment to honoring the legacy of Chicago’s favorite son and daughter.”

Instead of Chicago, the money would be re-allocated to Schaumburg, Dixon, Ottawa, Peoria, Paris, Springfield, Effingham, Collinsville, and Carbondale should McSweeney’s bill become law.

“What we simply do is take this money from the capital budget and reallocate it to roads throughout the state of Illinois,”McSweeney said. “I support the Obama Presidential Center, but only if it’s privately funded.”

The structure that will sit on Chicago’s south side is not going to be Obama’s official library, which would allow for more federal funds. McSweeney said it’s all the more reason to pull back state funding.

Also signed on to McSweeney’s legislation are Rep. Jeanne Ives, R-Wheaton, and Rep. John Cabello, R-Machesney Park.

State Sen. Sam McCann, who also is running for governor, has filed similar legislation.

Construction of the presidential center is slated to begin this fall and be completed sometime after 2021.